Estimation of Realized Rates of Genetic Gain and Indicators for Breeding Program Assessment

Crop Science

Rutkoski, J. E.^1¹ 

[1] International Rice Research Institute, DAPO Box 7777 Metro Manila 1301, the Philippines^1

关键词: BLUP;    best linear unbiased prediction;    EBV;    estimated breeding value;    EqCg;    equivalent complete generations;   

DOI  :  10.2135/cropsci2018.09.0537

学科分类：农业科学（综合）

来源: Crop Science

【 摘 要 】

Routine estimation of the rate of genetic gain (ΔG_t) realized by a breeding program has been proposed as a means to monitor its effectiveness. Several methods of realized ΔG_t estimation have been used in other studies, but none have been objectively evaluated in a plant breeding context. Stochastic simulations of 80 rice (Oryza sativa L.) breeding programs over 28 yr were done to generate data used to evaluate five methods of realized ΔG_t estimation in terms of error, precision, efficiency, and correlation between true and predicted annual mean breeding values. Two indicators of ΔG_t, the expected ΔG_t, and the average number of equivalent complete generations (EqCg), were described and evaluated. At best, estimates of realized ΔG_t were over or underestimated by 15 and 27% when considering all 28 yr and the past 15 yr of breeding, respectively. The best methods were the estimated breeding value, control population, and era trial methods. Among these, correlations between true and estimated ΔG_t were at best 0.59, indicating that these methods cannot very accurately rank breeding programs in terms of realized ΔG_t. The expected ΔG_t and the average EqCg were shown to be useful indicators for determining if a nonzero genetic gain is expected. Determining which of the three best realized ΔG_t estimation methods evaluated, if any, would be appropriate for any given breeding program should be done with careful consideration of the objectives, resources, seed stocks, and structure of the data available.

【 授权许可】

CC BY