Forecasting wheat production using time series models in Pakistan Author(s):

Asian Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development

M. Asif Masood¹ 

关键词: Forecast;    Production;    Yield;    Time series;   

DOI  :  10.18488/journal.1005/2018.8.2/1005.2.172.177

学科分类：农业科学（综合）

来源: Asian Economic and Social Society

【 摘 要 】

The present paper was designed to forecast wheat production for 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-2020 respectively by using time series data from 1971-72 to 2016-17 with best selected time series models. Linear, Quadratic, Exponential, S-Curve, Double Exponential Smoothing, Single exponential smoothing, Moving average and ARIMA were estimated for wheat production. The results showed a mix trend in production of wheat for selected time period. ARIMA (2,1,2) was found best one keeping in view close forecasts with actual reported wheat production. So the preference inclined towards the ARIMA (2,1,2) than quadratic to forecasts of wheat production.

【 授权许可】

CC BY