Identifying past social-ecological thresholds to understand long-term temporal dynamics in Spain

Ecology and Society: a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability

FedericaRavera,¹  MarinaGarcía-Llorente,²  JavierBenayas,²  IreneIniesta-Arandia,³  ÓscarCarpintero,⁴  Cesar A López-Santiago,⁵  José A. González,⁸  BertaMartín-López,⁸  FernandoSantos-Martín,⁸  CarlosMontes,⁸  BlancaGonzález García-Mon,⁹ 

[1]Department of Applied Research and Agricultural Extension, Madrid Institute for Rural, Agricultural and Food Research and Development (IMIDRA), Madrid, Spain

[2]FRACTAL Collective, Madrid, Spain

[3]Agroecology, Food Sovereignty and Commons Research Group, University of Córdoba

[4]Chair in Agroecology and Food Systems, Universitat de Vic - Universitat Central de Catalunya (UVic-UCC), Vic, Spain

[5]Departamento de Ecología, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain

[6]Group of Energy, Economy and Dynamic Systems, University of Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain

[7]Institute for Ethics and Transdisciplinary Sustainability Research, Faculty of Sustainability, Leuphana University of Lüneburg, Lüneburg, Germany

[8]Social-Ecological Systems Laboratory, Department of Ecology, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain

[9]Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

关键词: ecosystem service;    long-term analysis;    social-ecological thresholds;    Spain;    temporal dynamics;   

DOI  :  10.5751/ES-10734-240210

学科分类：生物科学（综合）

来源: Resilience Alliance Publications

【 摘 要 】

A thorough understanding of long-term temporal social-ecological dynamics at the national scale helps to explain the current condition of a country’s ecosystems and to support environmental policies to tackle future sustainability challenges. We aimed to develop a methodological approach to understand past long-term (1960-2010) social-ecological dynamics in Spain. First, we developed a methodical framework that allowed us to explore complex social-ecological dynamics among biodiversity, ecosystem services, human well-being, drivers of change, and institutional responses. Second, we compiled 21 long-term, national-scale indicators and analyzed their temporal relationships through a redundancy analysis. Third, we used a Bayesian change point analysis to detect evidence of past social-ecological thresholds and historical time periods. Our results revealed that Spain has passed through four social-ecological thresholds that define five different time periods of nature and society relationships. Finally, we discussed how the proposed methodological approach helps to reinterpret national-level ecosystem indicators through a new conceptual lens to develop a more systems-based way of understanding long-term social-ecological patterns and dynamics.

【 授权许可】

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