Building self-consistent, short-term earthquake probability (STEP) models: improved strategies and calibration procedures

Annals Of Geophysics

Jochen Woessner¹  J. Douglas Zechar¹  Damiano Monelli¹  Annemarie Christophersen¹ 

[1] ETH Zurich, Swiss Seismological Service, Zurich

关键词: Earthquake statistics;    Earthquake forecasting;    Likelihood testing;    Aftershock model;    Seismicity analysis.;   

DOI  :  10.4401/ag-4812

学科分类：地球化学与岩石

来源: Istituto Nazionale Di Geofisica E Vulcanologia

【 摘 要 】

We present here two self-consistent implementations of a short-term earthquake probability (STEP) model that produces daily seismicity forecasts for the area of the Italian national seismic network. Both implementations combine a time-varying and a time-i

【 授权许可】

CC BY