Risk analysis in case of fire on PZL BRYZA using the event tree analysis / Analiza ryzyka w przypadku pożaru samolotu PZL BRYZA z wykorzystaniem metody drzewa zdarzeń

Journal of KONBiN

关键词: risk analysis;    Event Tree Analysis;    flight safety;    analiza ryzyka;    metoda drzewa zdarzeń;    bezpieczeństwo lotów;   

DOI  :  10.1515/jok-2016-0026

学科分类：工程和技术（综合）

来源: Instytut Techniczny Wojsk Lotniczych / Air Force Institute of Technology

【 摘 要 】

The paper presents application of the Event Tree Analysis method for analyzing risk in complex situations. A model associated with the occurrence of fire on PZL Bryza was developed using the aircraft flight manual. The probabilities of events caused by the initiating event and the losses caused by each of the highlighted final undesirable events were determined. Statistical data for flight safety was used to calculate probability of the initiating event. The risk was determined as the probability that losses of at least given category will occur during one flight. As a result of the conducted analysis it was found that the probability of in-flight fire is very small. However, in such a case, the probability of death of one or more passengers is relatively high.

【 授权许可】

Unknown