Biases and Model Agreement in Projections of Climate Extremes over the Tropical Pacific

Earth Interactions

Sarah E.Perkins¹ 

关键词: GCMs;    Pacific region;    Extremes;    Uncertainty;    Projections;   

DOI  :  10.1175/2011EI395.1

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

来源: American Geophysical Union

【 摘 要 】

AbstractUsing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) general circulation models (GCMs), projections of a range of climate extremes are explored for the western Pacific. These projections include the 1-in-20-yr return levels and a selection of climate indices for minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation, and they are compared to corresponding mean projections for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 scenario during 2081–2100. Models are evaluated per variable based on their ability to simulate current extremes, as well as the overall daily distribution. Using the standardized evaluation scores for each variable, models are divided into four subsets where ensemble variability is calculated to measure model uncertainty and biases are calculated in respect to the multimodel ensemble (MME). Results show that higher uncertainty in projections of climate extremes exists when compared to the mean, even in those subsets consisting of higher-skilled models. Higher...

【 授权许可】

Unknown