More Misleading Trend Analysis of Hawaiian Forest Birds

The condor

Leonard A. Freed¹ 

关键词: trend analysis;    heterogeneous density;    residual analysis;    endangered species;    Hawaii Akepa;    Hawaii Creeper;   

DOI  :  10.1525/cond.2013.110165

学科分类：动物科学

来源: Central Ornithology Publication Office

【 摘 要 】

Abstract. Accurate analysis of trends in densities estimated from survey data depends on selection of a model that fits the data. When such analysis uses data recorded at different times in the same area but from different transects, then the target species' density and spatial heterogeneity become an issue. It is possible, even in the absence of environmental change, that one set of transects may underestimate or overestimate the density entirely on the basis of location. The resulting risk is that the density estimated earlier may falsely indicate a decline or an increase when compared to the densities estimated later. We investigate this problem for trend analysis of two species of endangered Hawaiian birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, island of Hawaii. Assertions based on Bayesian regression, and accepted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, purportedly indicate increases in the density of the endangered Hawaii Akepa (Loxops coccineus coccineus) from 1977 to 2007 and of the endangered...

【 授权许可】

CC BY