Model selection for the North American Breeding Bird Survey: A comparison of methods

The condor

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关键词: Bayesian predictive information criterion;    cross-validation;    hierarchical models;    model selection;    North American Breeding Bird Survey;    Watanabe-Akaike information criterion;   

DOI  :  10.1650/CONDOR-17-1.1

学科分类：动物科学

来源: Central Ornithology Publication Office

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides data for >420 bird species at multiple geographic scales over 5 decades. Modern computational methods have facilitated the fitting of complex hierarchical models to these data. It is easy to propose and fit new models, but little attention has been given to model selection. Here, we discuss and illustrate model selection using leave-one-out cross validation, and the Bayesian Predictive Information Criterion (BPIC). Cross-validation is enormously computationally intensive; we thus evaluate the performance of the Watanabe-Akaike Information Criterion (WAIC) as a computationally efficient approximation to the BPIC. Our evaluation is based on analyses of 4 models as applied to 20 species covered by the BBS. Model selection based on BPIC provided no strong evidence of one model being consistently superior to the others; for 14/20 species, none of the models emerged as superior. For the remaining 6 species, a first-difference model of population tr...

【 授权许可】

CC BY