Reliability Assessment of the Water Supply Systems under Uncertain Future Extreme Climate Conditions

Earth Interactions

MohammadKaramouz¹ 

关键词: Climate change;    Rainfall–runoff model;    System dynamics;    Reliability;   

DOI  :  10.1175/2012EI000503.1

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

来源: American Geophysical Union

【 摘 要 】

AbstractIncrease in global mean temperature and changes in rainfall amount, pattern, and distribution over the world are all indicative of climate change events. These changes alter the hydroclimatic condition of regions as well as the availability of water resources. In this study, the data generated by 14 general circulation models (GCMs) developed under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2, and B2 are downscaled and utilized to evaluate climate change impact on the hydroclimatic system of the Karaj River basin located in central Iran. The precipitation and temperature of the study region are downscaled using the change factor approach (CFA). The study analyzes future climate data, extreme changes of future climatic conditions of precipitation, and temperature. The Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model developed by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) is used to simulate streamflow under extreme climate change conditions. Two different sources ...

【 授权许可】

Unknown