Modelo estadístico predictivo para el padecimiento de pie diabético en pacientes con diabetes mellitus tipo II

MEDISUR

Raidell Avello Martínez¹  Pedro Roberto Suárez Surí¹  Raúl López Fernández²  Miriam Gutiérrez Escobar³  Rachel Yanes Seijo³  Ronald Mauricio Alvarado Flores⁴ 

[1] Universidad Carlos Rafael Rodríguez. Cienfuegos;Universidad Metropolitana de Ecuador;Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Cienfuegos;Universidad de Guayaquil. Ecuador

关键词: diseño;    modelos estadísticos;    pie diabético;    predicción;    diabetes mellitus tipo 2;    calidad de vida;   

DOI  :  

学科分类：医学（综合）

来源: Centro Provincial de Informacion de Ciencias Medicas de Cinfuegos

【 摘 要 】

Background:the need to predict and study diabetic foot problems is a critical issue and represents a major medical challenge. The reduction of its incidence can lead to positive results for improving the quality of life of patients and the impact on the socio-economic sphere, due to the high prevalence of diabetes in the working population. Objective:to design a statistical model for prediction of diabetic foot disease in type 2 diabetic patients. Methods:a descriptive study was conducted in patients attending the Diabetes Clinic in Cienfuegos from 2010 to 2013. Significant risk factors for diabetic foot disease were analyzed as variables. To design the model, binary logistic regression analysis and Chi-squared automatic interaction detection decision tree were used. Results:two models that behaved similarly based on the comparison criteria considered (percentage of correct classification, sensitivity and specificity) were developed. Validation was established through the receiver operating characteristic curve. The model using Chi-squared automatic interaction detection showed the best predictive results. Conclusions : Chi-squared automatic interaction detection decision trees have an adequate predictive capacity, which can be used in the Diabetes Clinic of Cienfuegos municipality.

【 授权许可】

CC BY