A simulation impact evaluation of social-economic development on water resource use

Journal of Water Reuse and Desalination

Wei, Jing¹  Zeng, Weihua¹  Yao, Bo¹  Wang, Wenyi¹ 

[1] School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, No. 19, XinJieKouWai St., HaiDian District, Beijing 100875, China

关键词: scenario analysis;    society and economy;    Stella model;    system dynamics;    water resource;    water shortage;   

DOI  :  10.2166/wrd.2014.050

学科分类：工程和技术（综合）

来源: IWA Publishing

【 摘 要 】

Due to the fast growth of the economy and population, the water scarcity issue has aroused widespread critical concern. In fact, reasonable structure, adaptive patterns and effective regulation of the economy, society and water resources can bring a harmonious future. Therefore, the study of how to balance economic social growth and water resources is of great importance. A model of the water resource, society and economy system of the Tongzhou district was designed by Stella. The model established here attempts to analyze future trends in social-economic development and the impact of the economic and population growth on water use in the Tongzhou district under three scenarios. The results reveal that the water shortage is very serious. If the current trends persist, the existing water supply will not be able to meet the water demand in the future. Tongzhou district's water shortage will be 162.50 million m3 in 2020 under the business-as-usual scenario. Therefore, it is necessary to develop unconventional water sources and improve the water-saving capacity of production and life to alleviate the water tensions. This research offers insight into larger questions regarding economic growth and water resource management in general.

【 授权许可】

CC BY-NC-ND