On a fractional order Ebola epidemic model

Advances in Difference Equations

Ivan Area¹  Wafa Shammakh²  Juan J Nieto³  Jorge Losada⁴  Hanan Batarfi⁵  ngela Torres⁶ 

[1] Departamento de MatemáFacultade de MatemáFaculty of Science, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia;n, Universidade de Vigo, Vigo, Spain;tica Aplicada II, E.E. Telecomunicacióticas, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain

关键词: Ebola;    fractional derivative;    epidemiological model;    26A33;    34A08;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s13662-015-0613-5

学科分类：数学（综合）

来源: SpringerOpen

【 摘 要 】

Ebola is a world health problem and with a recent outbreak. There exist different models in the literature to predict its behavior, most of them based on data coming from previous outbreaks or using restricted number of persons in the population variable. This paper deals both with classical and fractional order SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infections, removed) Ebola epidemic model and its comparison with real data extracted from the reports periodically published by the World Health Organization (WHO), starting from March 27th, 2014. As it has been shown in the literature, one physical meaning of the fractional order in fractional derivatives is that of index of memory; and therefore, it seems to be useful for epidemic models, as in this paper. The number of confirmed cases by the WHO in its reports is used for our analysis and estimation of the parameters in our classical and fractional SEIR models. Our approach gives a good approximation to real data. Following our results, the current outbreak will continue for approximately two years, assuming that no new outbreak appears at a different community or country. Our estimates give a number of the order nine million confirmed cases.

【 授权许可】

CC BY