Changes in the Long-Term Geophysical Eruptive Precursors at Piton de la Fournaise: Implications for the Response Management

Frontiers in Digital Humanities

Catherine, Philippe²  Ferrazzini, Valé²  verine²  Testud, Sé³  Villeneuve, Nicolas³  Boissier, Patrice³  Peltier, Aline⁴  rie⁴  Hassen Ali, Theo⁴ 

[1] Jean Monnet de Saint Etienne, France;Paris Diderot, UMR 7154 CNRS, France;, Observatoire Volcanologique du Piton de la Fournaise, UniversitéInstitut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Sorbonne Paris CitéUFR Sciences et Techniques, Université

关键词: Eruptive precursors;    Piton de la Fournaise;    volcano hazards and risks;    volcano monitoring;    crisis management;   

DOI  :  10.3389/feart.2018.00104

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

Anticipating eruptions early enough to give warning to authorities is one of the main goals in volcanology. However, identifying and providing unequivocal identification on volcano reawakening remain challenging issues, mostly when unrests are sudden or “silent”. At the Piton de la Fournaise volcano, a clear increase in both the seismicity and the ground displacements are systematically observed a few days/weeks before eruptions, and appear as clear eruptive precursors. A systematic study of these long-term precursors demonstrates the changes in their intensity, duration and time of appearance during 1998-2017 (43 eruptions), directly linked to the influence of the pre- and post-summit caldera formation (April 2007) and to changes in the deep magma refilling process since 2016. These changes in the precursors were not without consequence on the early alert to the authorities, with some false alerts and late alerts. It is thus of prime importance for crisis management to bear in mind the possibility of these rapid changes and that of sudden volcanic unrest with little warnings, to be able to take the most appropriate decisions, in particular raising the level of alert or lifting it totally. The findings of this study have enabled the relevant authorities to improve the alert chain protocol, and scientists to communicate more efficiently with the decision-makers.

【 授权许可】

CC BY