期刊论文详细信息
Frontiers in Digital Humanities
The Effects of Vent Location, Event Scale, and Time Forecasts on Pyroclastic Density Current Hazard Maps at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy)
Rosi, Mauro1  Isaia, Roberto2  Neri, Augusto4  Vitale, Stefano5  Flandoli, Franco6  Bisson, Marina6  Esposti Ongaro, Tomaso6  Bevilacqua, Andrea6 
[1] di Pisa, Pisa, Italy;Dipartimento di Matematica, UniversitàDipartimento di Scienze delle Terra, UniversitàGeology Department, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, United States;Osservatorio Vesuviano, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Napoli, Italy;Sezione di Pisa, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Pisa, Italy
关键词: Pyroclastic density currents;    Hazard mapping;    probability models in volcanology;    Campi Flegrei;    Cox-Hawkes processes;    Box model;    Doubly stochastic models;    Monte Nuovo;    uncertainty quantification;    vent opening maps;   
DOI  :  10.3389/feart.2017.00072
学科分类:社会科学、人文和艺术(综合)
来源: Frontiers
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【 摘 要 】

This study presents a new method for producing long-term hazard maps for pyroclastic density currents (PDC) originating at Campi Flegrei caldera. Such method is based on a doubly stochastic approach and is able to combine the uncertainty assessments on the spatial location of the volcanic vent, the size of the flow and the expected time of such an event. The results are obtained by using a Monte Carlo approach and adopting a simplified invasion model based on the box model integral approximation. Temporal assessments are modelled through a Cox-type process including self-excitement effects, based on the eruptive record of the last 15 kyr. Mean and percentile maps of PDC invasion probability are produced, exploring their sensitivity to some sources of uncertainty and to the effects of the dependence between PDC scales and the caldera sector where they originated. Conditional maps representative of PDC originating inside limited zones of the caldera, or of PDC with a limited range of scales are also produced. Finally, the effect of assuming different time windows for the hazard estimates is explored, also including the potential occurrence of a sequence of multiple events. Assuming that the last eruption of Monte Nuovo (A.D. 1538) marked the beginning of a new epoch of activity similar to the previous ones, results of the statistical analysis indicate a mean probability of PDC invasion above 5% in the next 50 years on almost the entire caldera (with a probability peak of ~25% in the central part of the caldera). In contrast, probability values reduce by a factor of about 3 if the entire eruptive record is considered over the last 15 kyr, i.e. including both eruptive epochs and quiescent periods.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   

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