Changes of Extreme Sea Level in 1.5 and 2.0°C Warmer Climate Along the Coast of China

Frontiers in Digital Humanities

Liu, Qiulin¹  Li, Delei²  Wang, Hui³  Liu, Kexiu³  Li, Huan³  Feng, Jianlong³ 

[1] Function Laboratory for Ocean Dynamics and Climate, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, China;Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China;National Marine Data and Information Service, China

关键词: extreme sea level;    return sea level;    sea level rise;    projection;    Strom surge;   

DOI  :  10.3389/feart.2018.00216

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

Using hourly sea level data from 15 tide gauges along the Chinese coast and sea level data of three simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we assessed the changes and benefits of the extreme sea level of limiting warming to 1.5°C instead of 2.0°C. Observations show that the extreme sea level has risen with high confidence during the past decades along the coast of China, while the mean sea level change, especially the long-term change plays important roles in the changing process of extreme sea levels. Under the 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming scenarios, the sea level will rise with fluctuations in the future, so will the return levels of the extreme sea levels. Compared with the 1.5°C warming condition, the return levels under the 2.0°C warming condition will rise significantly at all tide gauges along the Chinese coast. The results indicate that a 0.5°C warming will bring much difference to the extreme sea levels along the coast of China. It is of great necessity to limit anthropogenic warming to 1.5°C rather than 2.0°C, as proposed by the Paris Climate Agreement, which will greatly reduce the potential risks of future flood disasters along the coast of China and is beneficial for risk response management.

【 授权许可】

CC BY