THE GOVERNANCE OF FEDERAL DEBT IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Risk Governance & Control: Financial Markets & Institutions

Gisele Mah¹ 

关键词: Sovereign Debt;    Variance Decomposition;    Generalised Impulse Repulse Function and United States of America;   

DOI  :  10.22495/rgcv7i1art12

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Virtus Interpress

【 摘 要 】

The United State of America has been experiencing high debt to GDP ratio of more than 100% and these Public debts are detrimental. The main purpose of this study was to examine the shocks of the variables on others in the USA economy by using quarterly data. The variance decomposition and the Generalised Impulse Response Function techniques were employed to analyse the data. The result revealed that high variation of shocks in real federal debt is explained by their own innovations in the short run, by CPI followed by real federal debt its self.In the long run, this leads to CPI and real government spending. The GIRF reveals that in the short run, real federal debt responds negatively to shocks from CPI, real federal interest payment and real federal government tax receipts and positively to real federal debt and real government spending. In medium term, only real federal government tax receipts are negative while the others are positive. In the long run, the response are all positive to shock from the independent variables. The results lead to the recommendation that the US government should focus on real federal debt in the short run. In the medium term, US government should focus on increasing real government spending and reducing only real federal government tax receipts. In the long run the target should real be federal debt, CPI, real federal interest payment, real government spending and real federal government tax receipts.

【 授权许可】

CC BY-NC