Forecasting: Trying to Reason from Hurricane Season

INFORMS Transactions on Education

B. Jay Coleman¹ 

[1] Department of Management, Marketing, and Logistics, Coggin College of Business, University of North Florida, Jacksonville, Florida 32224

关键词: hurricane forecasting;    teaching forecasting;    teaching operations management;   

DOI  :  10.1287/ited.6.2.1

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: INFORMS

【 摘 要 】

Hurricane season presents an excellent illustration of a wide range of issues encountered in developing and responding to business forecasts. The high profile of hurricane forecasts—particularly during the 2004 season in which four hurricanes made landfall in Florida, and during the 2005 season when hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans and the surrounding region—makes them a convenient, visible, and ideal illustrative classroom example. This paper outlines 25 business forecasting principles and their direct parallels in hurricane forecasting. This compilation has been successfully used by author as a basis for an in-class review of forecasting in an undergraduate operations management introductory course. A report of the positive student feedback and comparative test results is provided.

【 授权许可】

CC BY