Approach to the Assessment Irregularity and Cyclic Dynamics of Territorial Development

Asian Economic and Financial Review

关键词: Region;    Socio-economic development;    Irregularity;    Structural disproportions;    Management;    Scenario simulation;    Approximation and econometric methods;    Regional policy;    Balancing;    Fractal mathematics and catastrophe theory methods;   

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Asian Economic and Social Society

【 摘 要 】

Purpose – The main purpose of this study is a modelling of assessment processes for irregularity and cyclical of dynamic regions development, which used to reduce inter-regional contrasts, disruptions and variations in a socio-economic development on base an effective regional financial policy.Design/methodology/approach – The conceptual provisions and model basis of an estimate of irregular and cyclic dynamics of the socio-economic development of any regions, which are functioning in some conditions of a high level of an uncertainty the external environment. At the same time, this external environment has a significant influence to increase of risks and losses in design making.Findings – The model basis presents as a complex of some interconnected modules: the module for estimate and analysis of the irregularity of the socio-economic development any regions; the module to form some management scenarios of the socio-economic development any regions. Targeted direction of the first module is an estimate of an interregional socio-economic differentiation, a detection of some disproportions in the regions development. Description of the second module is a forming of any management scenarios of the socio-economic development any regions which to direct to decrease of a level of the interregional differentiation while ensuring of a sustainable economic growth.Originality/value – Was formed the models complex of a differentiation of the develop regions which can provide a possibility for estimation of some sustainability for the cluster formations regions by a level of the socio-economic development and to make an analysis of their structural dynamics. Also was been developed a complex of a methodical ensuring for a system forecasting of cyclical dynamic of an economic territories growth. The main blocks of this complex are the forecasting of macroeconomic indicators considering some indicators of the cyclical development; a detection and analysis of any cyclical fluctuations indicators of the region development; a forecasting of some crisis and catastrophes in the socio-economic region development. Was been developed the model of an alignment of the socio-economic disproportions on the interregional level on base the fiscal or tax-budget state policy. For forecasting of some consequences change of fiscal policy can be used some scenario approach which realization is doing on base an imitation simulation.

【 授权许可】

CC BY