A Spreadsheet Scenario Analysis Technique That Integrates with Optimization and Simulation

INFORMS Transactions on Education

Özgür Özlük¹  Thomas A. Grossman² 

[1] College of Business, San Francisco State University, San Francisco, California 94132;School of Business and Professional Studies, University of San Francisco, San Francisco, California 94117

关键词: spreadsheets;    scenarios;    scenario analysis;    optimization;    simulation;   

DOI  :  10.1287/ited.1090.0027

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: INFORMS

【 摘 要 】

Scenario analysis is a widely used technique, and business students should be proficient in running scenarios through a spreadsheet model. We propose 10 desirable properties for a scenario analysis technique, and show that the Microsoft Excel Scenario Manager tool satisfies only one of them. We provide a tutorial for a better technique that can be programmed into an existing spreadsheet in a matter of minutes. We show how to integrate the technique with the Excel Solver to allow for rapid optimization of multiple scenarios and with the Crystal Ball add-in for Monte Carlo simulation to enable simulation of multiple scenarios. Our undergraduate and MBA students are able to learn the technique with little difficulty.

【 授权许可】

CC BY