Forecasting elections in Europe: Synthetic models:

Research & Politics

Michael S. Lewis-Beck¹ 

关键词: Election forecasting;    synthetic model;    European countries;   

DOI  :  10.1177/2053168014565128

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Sage Journals

【 摘 要 】

Scientific work on national election forecasting has become most developed for the United States case, where three dominant approaches can be identified: Structuralists, Aggregators, and Synthesizers. For European cases, election forecasting models remain almost exclusively Structuralist. Here we join together structural modeling and aggregate polling results, to form a hybrid, which we label a Synthetic Model. This model contains a political economy core, to which poll numbers are added (to tap omitted variables). We apply this model to a sample of three Western European countries: Germany, Ireland, and the United Kingdom. This combinatory strategy appears to offer clear forecasting gains, in terms of lead and accuracy.

【 授权许可】

CC BY-NC-ND