Research & Politics | |
Forecasting elections in Europe: Synthetic models: | |
Michael S. Lewis-Beck1  | |
关键词: Election forecasting; synthetic model; European countries; | |
DOI : 10.1177/2053168014565128 | |
学科分类:社会科学、人文和艺术(综合) | |
来源: Sage Journals | |
【 摘 要 】
Scientific work on national election forecasting has become most developed for the United States case, where three dominant approaches can be identified: Structuralists, Aggregators, and Synthesizers. For European cases, election forecasting models remain almost exclusively Structuralist. Here we join together structural modeling and aggregate polling results, to form a hybrid, which we label a Synthetic Model. This model contains a political economy core, to which poll numbers are added (to tap omitted variables). We apply this model to a sample of three Western European countries: Germany, Ireland, and the United Kingdom. This combinatory strategy appears to offer clear forecasting gains, in terms of lead and accuracy.
【 授权许可】
CC BY-NC-ND
【 预 览 】
Files | Size | Format | View |
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RO201902027001027ZK.pdf | 277KB | download |