Application of the Theory of Self-Organized Criticality to the Investigation of Historical Processes:

SAGE Open

Dmitry S. Zhukov¹ 

关键词: self-organized criticality;    social transformation;    research methodology;    design;    history;    social change;    modernization;   

DOI  :  10.1177/2158244016683216

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Sage Journals

【 摘 要 】

The article demonstrates heuristic possibilities of the theory of self-organized criticality (SOC) in the investigation of historical processes. Key SOC concepts and ideas are explained. Specifically, tools that can be used for identifying pink noise, an attribute of a critical state, are described. The results of spectral analyses of historical demographic data (i.e., birth and death rates in Russian settlements in the 19th and 20th centuries) and historical market data (i.e., grain prices in regions of Russia in the 18th, 19th, and early 20th centuries) are presented. It was found that noise color in the data series differed substantially across different periods. Based on these observations, the assumption that a change in noise color can serve as an indicator of changes in historical processes was made. In some cases, this indicator can enable one to establish the time, speed, and direction of state changes in historical processes. Pink noise was discovered in the examined birth and death rate dynamics, as well as in the dynamics of prices across periods. The described methods have the potential to be used beyond the limits of the presently considered historical subjects, including in investigations of different types of social transformation.

【 授权许可】

CC BY