Cross-correlation of output fluctuation and system-balancing cost in photovoltaic integration

The Journal of Engineering

Kazuhiko Ogimoto¹  Yuichi Ikeda² 

[1] Collaborative Research Center for Energy Engineering, Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan;Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan

关键词: thermal plant operation scheduling;    system-balancing cost estimation;    cross-correlation coefficients;    local production concept;    actual PV output time series data;    photovoltaic integration;    Tokyo area;    forecast error estimation;    photovoltaic output fluctuation cross-correlation;    Japan;    policy implications;    principal component analysis;    unit commitment model;    r;    om matrix theory;    local renewable energy consumption;   

DOI  :  10.1049/joe.2014.0235

学科分类：工程和技术（综合）

来源: IET

【 摘 要 】

The authors analysed the cross-correlation of photovoltaic (PV) output fluctuation for the actual PV output time series data in both the Tokyo area and the whole of Japan using the principal component analysis with the random matrix theory. Based on the obtained cross-correlation coefficients, the forecast error for PV output was estimated with/without considering the cross-correlations. Then the operation schedule of thermal plants is calculated to integrate PV output using the proposed unit commitment model with the estimated forecast error. The system-balancing cost of PV system was also estimated with or without demand response. Finally, validity of the concept of ‘local production for local consumption of renewable energy’ and alternative policy implications were discussed.

【 授权许可】

CC BY