On the Temporal Causal Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables: Empirical Evidence From India

SAGE Open

Srinivasan Palamalai¹ 

关键词: macroeconomic variables;    cointegration;    causality;    variance decomposition analysis;    impulse response functions;   

DOI  :  10.1177/2158244014525419

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Sage Journals

【 摘 要 】

The present study examines the dynamic interactions among macroeconomic variables such as real output, prices, money supply, interest rate (IR), and exchange rate (EXR) in India during the pre-economic crisis and economic crisis periods, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test for cointegration, Johansen and Juselius multivariate cointegration test, Granger causality/Block exogeneity Wald test based on Vector Error Correction Model, variance decomposition analysis and impulse response functions. The empirical results reveal a stronger long-run bilateral relationship between real output, price level, IR, and EXR during the pre-crisis sample period. Moreover, the empirical results confirm a unidirectional short-run causality running from price level to EXR, IR to price level, and real output to money supply during the pre-crisis period. Also, it is evident from the test results that there exist short-run bidirectional relationships running between real output and EXR, price level and IR, and IR and EXR in the pre-crisis era, respectively. Most importantly, long-run bidirectional causality is found between real output, EXR, and IR during the economic crisis period. And the study results indicate short-run bidirectional causality between money supply and EXR, IR and price level, and IR and output in India during the crisis era. Also, a short-run unidirectional causality runs from prices to real output in the crisis period.

【 授权许可】

CC BY