Forecasting Dutch elections: An initial model from the March 2017 legislative contests:

Research & Politics

Ruth Dassonneville¹ 

关键词: Election forecasting;    the Netherl;    s;    structural model;    economic voting;   

DOI  :  10.1177/2053168017720023

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Sage Journals

【 摘 要 】

Serious election forecasting has become a routine activity in most Western democracies, with various methodologies employed, for example, polls, models, prediction markets, and citizen forecasting. In the Netherlands, however, election forecasting has limited itself to the use of polls, mainly because other approaches are viewed as too complicated, given the great fragmentation of the Dutch party system. Here we challenge this view, offering the first structural forecasting model of legislative elections there. We find that a straightforward Political Economy equation managed an accurate forecast of the 2017 contest, clearly besting the efforts of the pollsters.

【 授权许可】

CC BY-NC-ND