Analysis of a Modified Logistic Model for Describing the Growth of Durable Customer Goods in China

Mathematical and Computational Applications

Ji, Li-Qun¹ 

关键词: logistic model;    durable consumer goods;    pattern search method;    forecasting fit;   

DOI  :  10.3390/mca18010030

学科分类：计算数学

来源: mdpi

【 摘 要 】

The ability of a modified logistic model for forecasting the growth of durable consumer goods in China was investigated. The fitting of the modified logistic model to the historical data uses a pattern search technique to establish the optimum parameter values.Twodatasetsonthequantityofairconditionerownedper100urban households at year-end and color TV set owned per 100 rural households at year-end were analyzed in this work. Additionally, the logistic model was applied to the same data. Both two models were compared using their goodness of fit to the historical data. The comparison has revealed that the modified logistic model is more appropriate for describing the growth of durable consumer goods in China.

【 授权许可】

CC BY