Anticipating Vulnerability to Climate Change in Dryland Pastoral Systems: Using Dynamic Systems Models for the Kalahari

Ecology and Society: a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability

Dougill, Andrew¹ 

关键词: Botswana;    climate change;    drought sensitivity;    dynamic systems modelling;    Kalahari;    pastoral farming;    vulnerability pathways;   

DOI  :  10.5751/ES-03336-150217

学科分类：生物科学（综合）

来源: Resilience Alliance Publications

【 摘 要 】

It is vitally important to identify agroecosystems that may cease functioning because of changing climate or land degradation. However, identifying such systems is confounded on both conceptual and methodological grounds, especially in systems that are moving toward thresholds, a common trait of dryland environments. This study explores these challenges by analyzing how a range of external pressures affect the vulnerability of dryland pastoral systems in the Kalahari. This is achieved by employing dynamic systems modeling approaches to understand the pathways by which communities became vulnerable to drought. Specifically, we evaluate how external pressures have changed: (1) different agroecosystems' abilities to tolerate drought, i.e., ecosystem resilience; (2) rural communities

【 授权许可】

Others