Synchronous failure: the emerging causal architecture of global crisis

Ecology and Society: a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability

Homer-Dixon, Thomas¹ 

关键词: climate change;    conventional oil;    financial system;    global crisis;    grain supply;    social-ecological system;   

DOI  :  10.5751/ES-07681-200306

学科分类：生物科学（综合）

来源: Resilience Alliance Publications

【 摘 要 】

Recent global crises reveal an emerging pattern of causation that could increasingly characterize the birth and progress of future global crises. A conceptual framework identifies this pattern’s deep causes, intermediate processes, and ultimate outcomes. The framework shows how multiple stresses can interact within a single social-ecological system to cause a shift in that system’s behavior, how simultaneous shifts of this kind in several largely discrete social-ecological systems can interact to cause a far larger intersystemic crisis, and how such a larger crisis can then rapidly propagate across multiple system boundaries to the global scale. Case studies of the 2008-2009 financial-energy and food-energy crises illustrate the framework. Suggestions are offered for future research to explore further the framework’s propositions.

【 授权许可】

Others