Air warming trends linked to permafrost warming in the sub-Arctic catchment of Tarfala, Sweden

Polar research

Andrew Frampton¹  Romain Pannetier³ 

[1] Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Svante Arrhenius väg 8, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden;Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Svante Arrhenius väg 8, SE-106 91 Stockholm, SwedenCorrespondence;Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Svante Arrhenius väg 8, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden

关键词: Permafrost;    warming ground;    PACE borehole;    numerical modelling;    climate change.;   

DOI  :  10.3402/polar.v35.28978

学科分类：自然科学（综合）

来源: Co-Action Publishing

【 摘 要 】

Recent ground temperature records from the 100-m-deep borehole near the Tarfala Research Station in northern Sweden reveal that permafrost is warming at a pace consistent with the rate of measured air temperature increase at the site. Here we investigate whether air temperature increase is the main driver of the observed change in the permafrost thermal regime using a non-isothermal hydrogeological numerical model for partially frozen ground. The local site is investigated with different ground surface temperature scenarios representing different integrated effects of surficial heat attenuation processes. Results indicate that despite a short-term sensitivity to heat attenuation processes including snow conditions, the main driver of change in the permafrost thermal regime during the past decade is warming air temperatures. Additionally, the approach used here is shown to be particularly pertinent for modelling warming trends, despite limited prior knowledge of site-specific conditions and geological prop...

【 授权许可】

CC BY-NC