Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens

PLoS Pathogens

Ivo Claassen¹  Guus Koch¹  Michiel van Boven²  Annemarie Bouma³  Don Klinkenberg³  Christl A. Donnelly⁴  Ketut Natih⁵ 

[1] Central Veterinary Institute, Wageningen University and Research Centre, The Netherlands;Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, The Netherlands;Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, The Netherlands;MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom;National Veterinary Drug Assay Laboratory, Bogor, Indonesia

关键词: Birds;    H5N1;    Vaccination;    immunization;    Avian influenza;    Chickens;    Viral vaccines;    Inoculation;    Bayesian method;   

DOI  :  10.1371/journal.ppat.1000281

学科分类：生物科学（综合）

来源: Public Library of Science

【 摘 要 】

Despite considerable research efforts, little is yet known about key epidemiological parameters of H5N1 highly pathogenic influenza viruses in their avian hosts. Here we show how these parameters can be estimated using a limited number of birds in experimental transmission studies. Our quantitative estimates, based on Bayesian methods of inference, reveal that (i) the period of latency of H5N1 influenza virus in unvaccinated chickens is short (mean: 0.24 days; 95% credible interval: 0.099–0.48 days); (ii) the infectious period of H5N1 virus in unvaccinated chickens is approximately 2 days (mean: 2.1 days; 95%CI: 1.8–2.3 days); (iii) the reproduction number of H5N1 virus in unvaccinated chickens need not be high (mean: 1.6; 95%CI: 0.90–2.5), although the virus is expected to spread rapidly because it has a short generation interval in unvaccinated chickens (mean: 1.3 days; 95%CI: 1.0–1.5 days); and (iv) vaccination with genetically and antigenically distant H5N2 vaccines can effectively halt transmission. Simulations based on the estimated parameters indicate that herd immunity may be obtained if at least 80% of chickens in a flock are vaccinated. We discuss the implications for the control of H5N1 avian influenza virus in areas where it is endemic.

【 授权许可】

CC BY