The Effects of Downscaling Method on the Variability of Simulated Watershed Response to Climate Change in Five U.S. Basins

Earth Interactions

D. M.Nover¹ 

关键词: Climate prediction;    Ensembles;    Models and modeling;    Coupled models;    Hydrologic models;   

DOI  :  10.1175/EI-D-15-0024.1

学科分类：地球科学(综合)

来源: American Geophysical Union

【 摘 要 】

AbstractSimulations of future climate change impacts on water resources are subject to multiple and cascading uncertainties associated with different modeling and methodological choices. A key facet of this uncertainty is the coarse spatial resolution of GCM output compared to the finer-resolution information needed by water managers. To address this issue, it is now common practice to apply spatial downscaling techniques, using either higher-resolution regional climate models or statistical approaches applied to GCM output, to develop finer-resolution information. Downscaling, however, can also introduce its own uncertainties into water resources’ impact assessments. This study uses watershed simulations in five U.S. basins to quantify the sources of variability in streamflow, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads associated with the underlying GCM compared to the choice of downscaling method (both statistically and dynamically downscaled GCM output). This study also assesses the specific, incremental...

【 授权许可】

Unknown