Turning the hands of time again: a purely confirmatory replication study and a Bayesian analysis

Frontiers in Psychology

Eric-Jan Wagenmakers¹ 

关键词: preregistration;    replication;    Bayes factor;    statistical evidence;    null hypothesis testing;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00494

学科分类：心理学（综合）

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

In a series of four experiments, Topolinski and Sparenberg (2012) found support for the conjecture that clockwise movements induce psychological states of temporal progression and an orientation toward the future and novelty. Here we report the results of a preregistered replication attempt of Experiment 2 from Topolinski and Sparenberg (2012). Participants turned kitchen rolls either clockwise or counterclockwise while answering items from a questionnaire assessing openness to experience. Data from 102 participants showed that the effect went slightly in the direction opposite to that predicted by Topolinski and Sparenberg (2012), and a preregistered Bayes factor hypothesis test revealed that the data were 10.76 times more likely under the null hypothesis than under the alternative hypothesis. Our findings illustrate the theoretical importance and practical advantages of preregistered Bayes factor replication studies, both for psychological science and for empirical work in general.

【 授权许可】

CC BY