To disconfirm or not to disconfirm: a null prediction vs. no prediction

Frontiers in Psychology

David Trafimow¹ 

关键词: null hypothesis;    no prediction;    failed prediction;    accounting for data;    does not account for data;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fpsyg.2013.00733

学科分类：心理学（综合）

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

As a researcher who reads journal articles, a journal reviewer, and a journal editor, I have lost track of the countless times I have encountered a particular type of scenario. An author obtains a statistically significant finding, points out that a particular theory fails to predict that finding, and argues that therefore the finding disconfirms the theory. But as I recently pointed out to a doubtless disappointed author in my rejection letter, this argument can be less strong than it appears at first blush. To see why, it is important to distinguish between two possibilities.

【 授权许可】

CC BY