On Bayesian problem-solving: helping Bayesians solve simple Bayesian word problems

Frontiers in Psychology

Miroslav Sirota¹ 

关键词: Bayesian problem-solving;    Bayesian research paradox;    natural frequencies;    Bayesian reasoning;    mathematical problem solving;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01141

学科分类：心理学（综合）

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

A well-supported conclusion a reader would draw from the vast amount of research on Bayesian inference could be distilled into one sentence: “People are profoundly Bayesians, but they fail to solve Bayesian word problems.” Indeed, two strands of research tell different stories about our ability to make Bayesian inferences—our ability to infer posterior probability from prior probability and new evidence according to Bayes's theorem. People see, move, coordinate, remember, learn, reason and argue consistently with complex probabilistic Bayesian computations, but they fail to solve, computationally much simpler, Bayesian word problems.

【 授权许可】

CC BY