Are the sunspots really vanishing? - Anomalies in solar cycle 23 and implications for long-term models and proxies

Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

Laure Lefèvre¹  Frédéric Clette¹ 

[1] SIDC – Royal Observatory of Belgium,3 avenue Circulaire,1180 Bruxelles,Belgium

关键词: space climate;    solar activity;    sunspots;    solar cycle;    Sun;   

Others  :  800690
DOI  :  doi:10.1051/swsc/2012007

 received in 2012-02-29, accepted in 2012-06-09,  发布年份 2012

【 摘 要 】

Context: The elapsed solar cycle (23) ended with an exceptionally long period of low activity and with unprecedented low levels for various series of solar irradiance and particle flux measurements. This unpredicted evolution of solar activity raised multiple questions about a future decline of the solar cycles and launched a quest for precursor signs of this possible deep solar transition over the last decade.

【 授权许可】

   
© Owned by the authors, Published by EDP Sciences 2012

【 图 表 】

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Fig. 8

Fig. 9

Fig. 10

Fig. 11

Fig. 12

【 参考文献 】

• [1]Abreu, J.A., J.Beer, F.Steinhilber, S.M.Tobias, and N.O.Weiss, For how long will the current grand maximum of solar activity persist?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35 (20), L20109, DOI: 10.1029/2008GL035442, 2008.
• [2]Antia, H.M., and S.Basu, Solar rotation rate during the cycle 24 minimum in activity, Astrophys. J., 720, 494–502, DOI: 10.1088/0004-637X/720/1/494, 2010. [NASA ADS]
• [3]Antia, H.M., and S.Basu, Zonal flows throughout cycle 23, J. Phys: Conf. Ser., 271 (1), 012072, DOI: 10.1088/1742-6596/271/1/012072, 2011.
• [4]Arlt, R., and A.Abdolvand, First solar butterfly diagram from Schwabe’s observations in 1825–1867, in “The Physics of Sun and Star Spots”, Proc. IAU Symp., 273, 286–289, DOI: 10.1017/S1743921311015390, 2011.
• [5]Basu, S., and H.M.Antia, Characteristics of solar meridional flows during solar cycle 23, Astrophys. J., 717 (1), 488–495, DOI: 10.1088/0004-637X/717/1/488, 2010. [NASA ADS]
• [6]Basu, S., and H.M.Antia, Characteristics of solar meridional flows, in “GONG-SoHO 24: A new era of seismology of the sun and solar-like stars”, J. Phys: Conf. Ser., 271, 12071, DOI: 10.1088/1742-6596/271/1/012071, 2011.
• [7]Bergeot, N., J.Legrand, R.Burston, C.Bruyninx, P.Defraigne, et al., Correlation between solar activity and Earth’s ionospheric electron content during the 23rd solar cycle, American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #SA33B-1774, 2010.
• [8]Brandenburg, A., The case for a distributed solar dynamo shaped by near-surface shear, Astrophys. J., 625, 539–547, DOI: 10.1086/429584, 2005. [NASA ADS]
• [9]Bruinsma, S.L., and J.M.Forbes, Anomalous behavior of the thermosphere during solar minimum observed by CHAMP and GRACE, J. Geophys. Res., 115, A11323, DOI: 10.1029/2010JA015605, 2010.
• [10]Charbonneau, P., Dynamo models of the solar cycle, Living Rev. Sol. Phys., 7 (3), Available at: http://www.livingreviews.org/lrsp-2010-3, 2010.
• [11]Chen, Y., L.Liu, and W.Wan, Does the F10.7 index correctly describe solar EUV flux during the deep solar minimum of 2007–2009?J. Geophys. Res., 116, A04304, DOI: 10.1029/2010JA016301, 2011.
• [12]Clette, F., D.Berghmans, P.Vanlommel, R.A.M.van der Linden, A.Koeckelenbergh, and L.Wauters, From the Wolf number to the International Sunspot Index: 25 years of SIDC, Adv. Space Res., 40, 919–928, DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2006.12.045, 2007. [NASA ADS]
• [13]Cliver, E.W., and A.G.Ling, The floor in the solar wind magnetic field revisited, Sol. Phys., 274 (1–2), 285–301, DOI: 10.1007/s11207-010-9657-6, 2010.
• [14]Coffey, H.E., C.D.Hanchett, and E.H.Erwin, AAVSO solar division digital data archives at NGDC, J. AAVSO, 27 (1), 55–60, 1999.
• [15]Coley, W.R., R.A.Heelis, M.R.Hairston, G.D.Earle, M.D.Perdue, et al., Ion temperature and density relationships measured by CINDI from the C/NOFS spacecraft during solar minimum, J. Geophys. Res., 115, A02313, DOI: 10.1029/2009JA014665, 2010.
• [16]de Toma, G., Evolution of coronal holes and implications for high-speed solar wind during the minimum between cycles 23 and 24, Sol. Phys., 213, 195–217, DOI: 10.1007/s11207-010-9677-2, 2010.
• [17]de Toma, G., S.E.Gibson, B.A.Emery, and C.N.Arge, The minimum between cycle 23 and 24: Is sunspot number the whole story?, in SOHO-23: Understanding a Peculiar Solar Minimum, eds.S.R.Cranmer, J.T.Hoeksema, and J.L.Kohl, ASP Conf. Ser., 428, 217–222, 2010.
• [18]Didkovsky, L.V., D.L.Judge, S.R.Wieman, and D.McMullin, Minima of solar cycles 22/23 and 23/24 as seen in SOHO/CELIAS/SEM absolute solar EUV flux, in “SOHO-23: Understanding a Peculiar Solar Minimum”eds.S.R., Cranmer, J.T.Hoeksema, and J.L.Kohl, ASP Conf. Ser., 428, 73–79, 2010.
• [19]Emmert, J.T., J.L.Lean, and J.M.Picone, Record-low thermospheric density during the 2008 solar minimum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 371, 12102, DOI: 10.1029/2010GL043671, 2010. [NASA ADS]
• [20]Fisk, L.A., and L.Zhao, The heliospheric magnetic field and the solar wind during the solar cycle, IAU Symp., 257, 109–120, DOI: 10.1017/S1743921309029160, 2009.
• [21]Hathaway, D.H., and L.Rightmire, Variations in the Sun’s meridional flow over a solar cycle, Science, 327, 1350, DOI: 10.1126/science.1181990, 2010. [NASA ADS]
• [22]Hathaway, D.H., and L.Rightmire, Variations in the axisymmetric transport of magnetic elements on the Sun: 1996–2010, Astrophys. J., 729 (2), 80–89, DOI: 10.1088/0004-637X/729/2/80, 2011.
• [23]Heber, B., A.Kopp, J.Gieseler, R.Müller-Mellin, H.Fichtner, et al., Modulation of galactic cosmic ray protons and electrons during an unusual solar minimum, Astrophys. J., 699, 1956–1963, DOI: 10.1088/0004-637X/699/2/1956, 2009. [NASA ADS]
• [24]Hossfield, C.H., A History of the Zurich and American relative sunspot number indices, J. AAVSO, 31 (1), 48–53, 2002.
• [25]Howe, R., J.Christensen-Dalsgaard, F.Hill, R.Komm, J.Schou, et al., A note on the torsional oscillation at solar minimum, Astrophys. J. Lett., 701 (2), L87–L90, DOI: 10.1088/0004-637X/701/2/L87, 2009. [NASA ADS]
• [26]Howe, R., F.Hill, R.Komm, J.Christensen-Dalsgaard, T.P.Larson, et al., The torsional oscillation and the new solar cycle, J. Phys: Conf. Ser., 271 (1), 012074, DOI: 10.1088/1742-6596/271/1/012074, 2011. [NASA ADS]
• [27]Janardhan, P., S.K.Bisoi, and S.Gosain, Solar polar fields during cycles 21–23: Correlation with meridional flows, Sol. Phys., 267 (2), 267–277, DOI: 10.1007/s11207-010-9653-x, 2010.
• [28]Javaraiah, J., Long-term variations in the growth and decay rates of sunspot groups, Sol. Phys., 270 (2), 463–483, DOI: 10.1007/s11207-011-9768-8, 2011.
• [29]Jian, L.K., C.T.Russell, and J.G.Luhmann, Comparing solar minimum 23/24 with historical solar wind records at 1 AU, Sol. Phys., 274 (1-2), 321–344, DOI: 10.1007/s11207-011-9737-2, 2011.
• [30]Johnson, R.W., Power law relating 10.7 cm flux to sunspot number, Astrophys. Space Sci., 332 (1), 73–79, DOI: 10.1007/s10509-010-0500-1, 2010. [NASA ADS]
• [31]Kane, R.P., Dissimilarity in the evolution of solar EUV and solar radio emission (2800 MHz) during 1999–2002, J. Geophys. Res., 108 (A12), 1455, DOI: 10.1029/2003JA009869, 2003.
• [32]Kilcik, A., V.B.Yurchyshyn, V.Abramenko, P.R.Goode, A.Ozguc, et al., Time distributions of large and small sunspot groups over four solar cycles, Astrophys. J., 731 (1), 30, DOI: 10.1088/0004-637X/731/1/30, 2011. [NASA ADS]
• [33]Komm, R., R.Howe, F.Hill, I.González Hernández, and D.Haber, Solar-cycle variation of zonal and meridional flow, J. Phys: Conf. Ser., 271 (1), 012077, DOI: 10.1088/1742-6596/271/1/012077, 2011. [NASA ADS]
• [34]Lean, J.L., J.T.Emmert, J.M.Picone, and R.R.Meier, Global and regional trends in ionospheric total electron content, J. Geophys. Res. (Space Phys.), 116, A00H04 11, DOI: 10.1029/2010JA016378, 2011b.
• [35]Lean, J.L., T.N.Woods, F.G.Eparvier, R.R.Meier, D.J.Strickland, et al., Solar extreme ultraviolet irradiance: Present, past, and future, J. Geophys. Res. (Space Phys.), 116, 1102, DOI: 10.1029/2010JA015901, 2011a.
• [36]Lefèvre, L., and F.Clette, A global small sunspot deficit at the base of the index anomalies of solar cycle 23, A&A, 536, L11, DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/201118034, 2011.
• [37]Lefèvre, L., F.Clette, and T.Baranyi, In-depth survey of sunspot and active region catalogs, in “The Physics of Sun and Star Spots”, IAU Symp., 273, 221–225, DOI: 10.1017/S1743921311015286, 2011.
• [38]Liu, L., Y.Chen, H.Le, V.I.Kurkin, N.M.Polekh, et al., The ionosphere under extremely prolonged low solar activity, J. Geophys. Res., 116 (A4), A04320, DOI: 10.1029/2010JA016296, 2011b.
• [39]Liu, L., H.Le, Y.Chen, M.He, W.Wan, et al., Features of the middle- and low-latitude ionosphere during solar minimum as revealed from COSMIC radio occultation measurements, J. Geophys. Res. (Space Phys.), 116, 1102, DOI: 10.1029/2011JA016691, 2011a.
• [40]Livingston, W., and M.Penn, Are sunspots different during this solar minimum?, EOS Trans., 90 (30), 257–258, 2009.
• [41]Lukianova, R., and K.Mursula, Changed relation between sunspot numbers, solar UV/EUV radiation and TSI during the declining phase of solar cycle 23, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 73 (2-3), 235–240, DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2010.04.002, 2011. [NASA ADS]
• [42]Lürh, H., and C.Xiong, IRI2007 model overestimates electron density during the 23/24 solar minimum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L23101, DOI: 10.1029/2010GL045430, 2010.
• [43]McComas, D.J., R.W.Ebert, H.A.Elliott, B.E.Goldstein, J.T.Gosling, et al., Weaker solar wind from the polar coronal holes and the whole Sun, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35 (18), L18103, DOI: 10.1029/2008GL034896, 2008. [NASA ADS]
• [44]McDonald, F.B., W.R.Webber, and D.V.Reames, Unusual time histories of galactic and anomalous cosmic rays at 1 AU over the deep solar minimum of cycle 23/24, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37 (18), L18101, DOI: 10.1029/2010GL044218, 2010. [NASA ADS]
• [45]Mewaldt, R.A., A.J.Davis, K.A.Lave, R.A.Leske, E.C.Stone, et al., Record-setting cosmic-ray intensities in 2009 and 2010, Astrophys. J. Lett., 723 (1), L1–L6, DOI: 10.1088/2041-8205/723/1/L1, 2010. [NASA ADS]
• [46]Muñoz-Jaramillo, A., D.Nandy, P.C.H.Martens, and A.R.Yeates, A double-ring algorithm for modeling solar active regions: Unifying kinematic dynamo models and surface flux-transport simulations, Astrophys. J. Lett., 720, L20–L25, DOI: 10.1088/2041-8205/720/1/L20, 2010. [NASA ADS]
• [47]Nandy, D., Dynamo models of the solar cycle: Current trends and future prospects, in Proc. of the 1st Asia Pacific Solar Physics Meeting, ASI Conf. Ser., [eprint: arXiv:1110.5725], 2011.
• [48]Nandy, D., A.Muñoz-Jaramillo, and P.C.H.Martens, Unusual Minimum of sunspot cycle 23 caused by meridional plasma flow variations, Nature, 471 (7336), 80–82, DOI: 10.1038/nature09786, 2011. [NASA ADS]
• [49]Penn, M., and W., Livingston, Long-term evolution of sunspot magnetic fields, in “The Physics of Sun and Star Spots”, Proc. of the IAU, IAU Symp., 273, 126–133, DOI: 10.1017/S1743921311015122, 2011.
• [50]Pesnell, W.D., Predictions of solar cycle 24, Sol. Phys., 252 (1), 209–220, 10.1007/s11207-008-9252-2, 2008. [NASA ADS]
• [51]Rezaei, R., C.Beck, and W.Schmidt, Variation in sunspot properties between 1999 and 2011 as observed with the Tenerife Infrared Polarimeter, A&A, 541, A60, DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/201118635, 2012. [NASA ADS]
• [52]Schaefer, B.E., Automatic inflation of the AAVSO sunspot number, J. AAVSO, 26, 40–46, 1997.
• [53]Schatten, K.H., Modeling a shallow solar dynamo, Sol. Phys., 255 (1), 3–38, DOI: 10.1007/s11207-008-9308-3, 2009. [NASA ADS]
• [54]Sheeley, N.R.Jr., A century of polar faculae variations, Astrophys. J. Lett., 680 (2), 1553–1559, DOI: 10.1086/588251, 2008.
• [55]Smith, E.J., and A.Balogh, Decrease in heliospheric magnetic flux in this solar minimum: Recent Ulysses magnetic field observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35 (22), L22103, 2008. [NASA ADS]
• [56]Solomon, S.C., L.Qian, L.V.Didkovsky, R.A.Viereck, and T.N.Woods, Causes of low thermospheric density during the 2007–2009 solar minimum, J. Geophys. Res. (Space Phys.), 116, A00H07, DOI: 10.1029/2011JA016508, 2011.
• [57]Solomon, S.C., T.N.Woods, L.V.Didkovsky, J.T.Emmert, and L.Qian, Anomalously low solar extreme-ultraviolet irradiance and thermospheric density during solar minimum, Geophys. Res. Lett., 371, 16103, DOI: 10.1029/2010GL044468, 2010. [NASA ADS]
• [58]Svalgaard, L., and H.S.Hudson, The solar microwave flux and the sunspot number, in “SOHO-23: Understanding a Peculiar Solar Minimum”, Eds.S.R.Cranmer, J.T.Hoeksema, and J.L.Kohl, ASP Conf. Ser., 428, 325, 2010.
• [59]Tapping, K.F., and J.J.Valdés, Did the Sun change its behaviour during the decline of cycle 23 and into cycle 24?Sol. Phys., 272, 337–350, DOI: 10.1007/s11207-011-9827-1, 2011. [NASA ADS]
• [60]Usoskin, I.G., S.K.Solanki, and G.A.Kovaltsov, Grand minima and maxima of solar activity: New observational constraints, A&A, 471 (1), 301–309, DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361:20077704, 2007. [NASA ADS]
• [61]Wang, Y.-M., E.Robbrecht, and N.R.SheeleyJr., On the weakening of the polar magnetic fields during solar cycle 23, Astrophys. J. Lett., 707 (2), 1372–1386, DOI: 10.1088/0004-637X/707/2/1372, 2009. [NASA ADS]
• [62]Watson, F.T., L.Fletcher, and S.Marshall, Evolution of sunspot properties during solar cycle 23, A&A, 533, A14, DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/201116655, 2011. [NASA ADS]
• [63]Wintoft, P., The variability of solar EUV: A multiscale comparison between sunspot number, 10.7 cm flux, LASP MgII index, and SOHO/SEM EUV flux, J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 73 (13), 1708–1714, DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2011.03.009, 2011.
• [64]Woods, T.N., Irradiance variations during this solar cycle minimum, in “SOHO-23: Understanding a Peculiar Solar Minimum”, eds.S.R., Cranmer, J.T.Hoeksema, and J.L.Kohl, ASP Conf. Ser., 428, 63–71, 2010.
• [65]Woods, T., Lower solar extreme ultraviolet irradiances during the solar cycle 23/24 minimum, in Proc. 38th COSPAR Scientific Assembly, 38, 1127, 2010.