The magnitude and effects of extreme solar particle events

Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

Alain Hilgers¹  Hugh Evans¹  Alessandra Menicucci¹  Giovanni Santin¹  Marc-Andre Chavy-Macdonald¹  Piers Jiggens¹ 

[1] European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC), Space Environment and Effects Section Keperlaan 1,2200AGNoordwijk,The Netherlands

关键词: extreme events;    Carrington event;    human spaceflight;    radiation;    SEP;   

Others  :  800617
DOI  :  doi:10.1051/swsc/2014017

 received in 2013-09-18, accepted in 2014-04-28,  发布年份 2014

【 摘 要 】

The solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation environment is an important consideration for spacecraft design, spacecraft mission planning and human spaceflight. Herein is presented an investigation into the likely severity of effects of a very large Solar Particle Event (SPE) on technology and humans in space. Fluences for SPEs derived using statistical models are compared to historical SPEs to verify their appropriateness for use in the analysis which follows. By combining environment tools with tools to model effects behind varying layers of spacecraft shielding it is possible to predict what impact a large SPE would be likely to have on a spacecraft in Near-Earth interplanetary space or geostationary Earth orbit. Also presented is a comparison of results generated using the traditional method of inputting the environment spectra, determined using a statistical model, into effects tools and a new method developed as part of the ESA SEPEM Project allowing for the creation of an effect time series on which statistics, previously applied to the flux data, can be run directly. The SPE environment spectra is determined and presented as energy integrated proton fluence (cm−2) as a function of particle energy (in MeV). This is input into the SHIELDOSE-2, MULASSIS, NIEL, GRAS and SEU effects tools to provide the output results. In the case of the new method for analysis, the flux time series is fed directly into the MULASSIS and GEMAT tools integrated into the SEPEM system. The output effect quantities include total ionising dose (in rads), non-ionising energy loss (MeV g−1), single event upsets (upsets/bit) and the dose in humans compared to established limits for stochastic (or cancer-causing) effects and tissue reactions (such as acute radiation sickness) in humans given in grey-equivalent and sieverts respectively.

【 授权许可】

   
© P. Jiggens et al., Published by EDP Sciences 2014

【 图 表 】

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