Assessing the relationship between spectral solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone using Bayesian inference

Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

and Joanna D. Haigh²  Jack S. Egerton²  Daniel J. Mortlock¹  William T. Ball² 

[1] Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London,SW7 2AZ,UK;Physics Department, Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College London,SW7 2AZ,UK

关键词: spectral solar irradiance;    ozone;    stratosphere;   

Others  :  1075710
DOI  :  doi:10.1051/swsc/2014023

 received in 2014-03-24, accepted in 2014-08-21,  发布年份 2014

【 摘 要 】

We investigate the relationship between spectral solar irradiance (SSI) and ozone in the tropical upper stratosphere. We find that solar cycle (SC) changes in ozone can be well approximated by considering the ozone response to SSI changes in a small number of individual wavelength bands between 176 and 310 nm, operating independently of each other. Additionally, we find that the ozone varies approximately linearly with changes in the SSI. Using these facts, we present a Bayesian formalism for inferring SC SSI changes and uncertainties from measured SC ozone profiles. Bayesian inference is a powerful, mathematically self-consistent method of considering both the uncertainties of the data and additional external information to provide the best estimate of parameters being estimated. Using this method, we show that, given measurement uncertainties in both ozone and SSI datasets, it is not currently possible to distinguish between observed or modelled SSI datasets using available estimates of ozone change profiles, although this might be possible by the inclusion of other external constraints. Our methodology has the potential, using wider datasets, to provide better understanding of both variations in SSI and the atmospheric response.

【 授权许可】

   
© W.T. Ball et al., Published by EDP Sciences 2014

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