Climatic effects on mosquito abundance in Mediterranean wetlands

Particle and Fibre Toxicology

Jordi Figuerola³  Ramón Soriguer³  Santiago Ruiz²  David Roiz¹ 

[1] Present address: UMR 224 MIVEGEC/BEES, IRD, Montpellier, France;Diputación de Huelva, Área de Medio Ambiente, Servicio de Control de Mosquitos, Huelva, Spain;Wetland Ecology Department, Doñana Biological Station, CSIC, Sevilla, Spain

关键词: Dirofilariasis;    Plasmodium;    West Nile;    GLM;    GAM;    Rainfall;    Temperature;    Climate change;    Mosquitoes;   

Others  :  1183549
DOI  :  10.1186/1756-3305-7-333

 received in 2014-03-22, accepted in 2014-06-26,  发布年份 2014

【 摘 要 】

Background

The impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases is highly controversial. One of the principal points of debate is whether or not climate influences mosquito abundance, a key factor in disease transmission.

Methods

To test this hypothesis, we analysed ten years of data (2003–2012) from biweekly surveys to assess inter-annual and seasonal relationships between the abundance of seven mosquito species known to be pathogen vectors (West Nile virus, Usutu virus, dirofilariasis and Plasmodium sp.) and several climatic variables in two wetlands in SW Spain.

Results

Within-season abundance patterns were related to climatic variables (i.e. temperature, rainfall, tide heights, relative humidity and photoperiod) that varied according to the mosquito species in question. Rainfall during winter months was positively related to Culex pipiens and Ochlerotatus detritus annual abundances. Annual maximum temperatures were non-linearly related to annual Cx. pipiens abundance, while annual mean temperatures were positively related to annual Ochlerotatus caspius abundance. Finally, we modelled shifts in mosquito abundances using the A2 and B2 temperature and rainfall climate change scenarios for the period 2011–2100. While Oc. caspius, an important anthropophilic species, may increase in abundance, no changes are expected for Cx. pipiens or the salt-marsh mosquito Oc. detritus.

Conclusions

Our results highlight that the effects of climate are species-specific, place-specific and non-linear and that linear approaches will therefore overestimate the effect of climate change on mosquito abundances at high temperatures. Climate warming does not necessarily lead to an increase in mosquito abundance in natural Mediterranean wetlands and will affect, above all, species such as Oc. caspius whose numbers are not closely linked to rainfall and are influenced, rather, by local tidal patterns and temperatures. The final impact of changes in vector abundance on disease frequency will depend on the direct and indirect effects of climate and other parameters related to pathogen amplification and spillover on humans and other vertebrates.

【 授权许可】

   
2014 Roiz et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

【 图 表 】

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