Climate and environmental change drives Ixodes ricinus geographical expansion at the northern range margin

Particle and Fibre Toxicology

Merete Hofshagen⁴  Bjørnar Ytrehus⁴  Inger-Lise Larsen⁴  Sebastian Westermann⁵  Hege Brun-Hansen²  Edgar Brun⁴  Bernt Johansen⁶  Zerai Woldehiwet⁹  Anja B Kristoffersen⁷  Ketil Isaksen³  Hildegunn Viljugrein¹  Sophie O Vanwambeke⁸  Solveig Jore⁴ 

[1] Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Bioscience, University of Oslo, P.O.Box 1066, 0316 Blindern, Oslo, Norway;Norwegian School of Veterinary Science, Ullevålsveien 72, P.O.Box 8146, Dep., 0033, Oslo, Norway;The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Research and Development Department, Division for Model and Climate Analysis, P.O.Box 43, 0313 Blindern, Oslo, Norway;Norwegian Veterinary Institute, Ullevålsveien 68, P.O.Box 750, Sentrum 0106, Oslo, Norway;Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O.Box 1066, Blindern 0316, Oslo, Norway;Northern Research Institute, P.O. Box 6434, Forskningsparken 9294, Tromsø, Norway;Department of Informatics, University of Oslo, P.O.Box 1080, Blindern 0316, Oslo, Norway;Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Earth & Life Institute, Université Catholique de Louvain, Place Louis Pasteur 3, B1348, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium;Department of Infection Biology, Institute of Infection & Global Health, University of Liverpool, Leahurst Campus, Chester High Road, Neston, CH64 7TE Wirral, UK

关键词: Remote sensing;    Global environmental change;    Ecotones;    Bush encroachment;    Anaplasma phagocytophilum;    Ixodes ricinus;    Climatic variability;    Climate change;    Range expansion;    Tick;   

Others  :  823301
DOI  :  10.1186/1756-3305-7-11

 received in 2013-11-07, accepted in 2013-12-31,  发布年份 2014

【 摘 要 】

Background

Global environmental change is causing spatial and temporal shifts in the distribution of species and the associated diseases of humans, domesticated animals and wildlife. In the on-going debate on the influence of climate change on vectors and vector-borne diseases, there is a lack of a comprehensive interdisciplinary multi-factorial approach utilizing high quality spatial and temporal data.

Methods

We explored biotic and abiotic factors associated with the latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in the distribution of Ixodes ricinus observed during the last three decades in Norway using antibodies against Anaplasma phagocytophilum in sheep as indicators for tick presence. Samples obtained from 2963 sheep from 90 farms in 3 ecologically different districts during 1978 – 2008 were analysed. We modelled the presence of antibodies against A. phagocytophilum to climatic-, environmental and demographic variables, and abundance of wild cervids and domestic animals, using mixed effect logistic regressions.

Results

Significant predictors were large diurnal fluctuations in ground surface temperature, spring precipitation, duration of snow cover, abundance of red deer and farm animals and bush encroachment/ecotones. The length of the growth season, mean temperature and the abundance of roe deer were not significant in the model.

Conclusions

Our results highlight the need to consider climatic variables year-round to disentangle important seasonal variation, climatic threshold changes, climate variability and to consider the broader environmental change, including abiotic and biotic factors. The results offer novel insight in how tick and tick-borne disease distribution might be modified by future climate and environmental change.

【 授权许可】

   
2014 Jore et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

【 图 表 】

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figure 3.

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