Modelling the potential of focal screening and treatment as elimination strategy for Plasmodium falciparum malaria in the Peruvian Amazon Region

Particle and Fibre Toxicology

Niko Speybroeck⁹  Umberto D’Alessandro⁶  Anna Rosanas-Urgell³  Moisés Sihuincha⁵  Dionicia Gamboa¹  Hugo Rodriguez⁷  Gianluca Frasso⁴  Philippe Lambert⁴  Emmanuel Abatih³  Dirk Berkvens³  Oralee Branch²  Alejandro Llanos-Cuentas⁸  Annette Erhart³  Angel Rosas-Aguirre⁹ 

[1] Departamento de Ciencias Celulares y Moleculares, Facultad de Ciencias y Filosofia, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima 31, Peru;Department of Medical Parasitology, New York University, New York 10012, USA;Department of Biomedical Sciences, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp 2000, Belgium;Institut des sciences humaines et sociales, Université de Liège, Liege 4000, Belgium;Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Amazonia Peruana, Iquitos 160, Loreto, Peru;Disease Control and Elimination, Medical Research Council Unit, Fajara 220, The Gambia;Región de Salud Loreto, Iquitos 160, Loreto, Peru;Instituto de Medicina Tropical Alexander von Humboldt, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima 31, Peru;Research Institute of Health and Society (IRSS), Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels 1200, Belgium

关键词: Peru;    Elimination;    Modelling;    Focal Screening and Treatment (FSAT);    Plasmodium falciparum;    Malaria;   

Others  :  1204104
DOI  :  10.1186/s13071-015-0868-4

 received in 2014-11-21, accepted in 2015-04-21,  发布年份 2015

【 摘 要 】

Background

Focal screening and treatment (FSAT) of malaria infections has recently been introduced in Peru to overcome the inherent limitations of passive case detection (PCD) and further decrease the malaria burden. Here, we used a relatively straightforward mathematical model to assess the potential of FSAT as elimination strategy for Plasmodium falciparum malaria in the Peruvian Amazon Region.

Methods

A baseline model was developed to simulate a scenario with seasonal malaria transmission and the effect of PCD and treatment of symptomatic infections on the P. falciparum malaria transmission in a low endemic area of the Peruvian Amazon. The model was then adjusted to simulate intervention scenarios for predicting the long term additional impact of FSAT on P. falciparum malaria prevalence and incidence. Model parameterization was done using data from a cohort study in a rural Amazonian community as well as published transmission parameters from previous studies in similar areas. The effect of FSAT timing and frequency, using either microscopy or a supposed field PCR, was assessed on both predicted incidence and prevalence rates.

Results

The intervention model indicated that the addition of FSAT to PCD significantly reduced the predicted P. falciparum incidence and prevalence. The strongest reduction was observed when three consecutive FSAT were implemented at the beginning of the low transmission season, and if malaria diagnosis was done with PCR. Repeated interventions for consecutive years (10 years with microscopy or 5 years with PCR), would allow reaching near to zero incidence and prevalence rates.

Conclusions

The addition of FSAT interventions to PCD may enable to reach P. falciparum elimination levels in low endemic areas of the Amazon Region, yet the progression rates to those levels may vary substantially according to the operational criteria used for the intervention.

【 授权许可】

   
2015 Rosas-Aguirre et al.; licensee BioMed Central.

【 图 表 】

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