Determining optimal neighborhood size for ecological studies using leave-one-out cross validation

International Journal of Health Geographics

Thomas F Wierzba¹  Ahmed Khatib²  Dipika Sur³  Mohammad Ali¹  Deok Ryun Kim¹ 

[1] International Vaccine Institute, San 4-8, Nakseongdae-dong, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, South Korea;Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, P.O.Box 236, Zanzibar, Tanzania;National Institute of Cholera and Enteric Diseases, Beleghata, Kolkata 700 010, India

关键词: Leave-one-out cross validation;    Ecological study;    Neighborhood;   

Others  :  811857
DOI  :  10.1186/1476-072X-11-10

 received in 2011-11-15, accepted in 2012-04-03,  发布年份 2012

【 摘 要 】

We employed a leave-one-out cross validation to determine optimally sized neighborhood. Variations between a single point and the other points within each filter size for all the points in the study area were evaluated, and the mean squared error (MSE) for each filter was calculated. The filter with the lowest MSE was considered as the optimal neighborhood. The method is useful in determining the optimal neighborhood for both geographic and population filters.

【 授权许可】

   
2012 Kim et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

【 图 表 】

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figure 3.

【 参考文献 】

• [1]Macintyre S, Maciver S, Sooman A: Area, class, and health: should we be focusing on places or people? Journal of Social Policy 1993, 22:213-234.
• [2]Kaplan GA: People and places: contrasting perspectives on the association between social class and health. Int J Health Serv 1996, 26:507-519.
• [3]Susser M: The logic in ecological: I. The logic of analysis. Am J Public Health 1994, 84:825-829.
• [4]Susser M: Does risk factor epidemiology put epidemiology at risk? Peering into the future. J Epidemiol Community Health 1998, 52:608-611.
• [5]Mackenbach JP: Public health epidemiology. J Epidemiol Community Health 1995, 49:333-334.
• [6]Pearce N: Traditional epidemiology, modern epidemiology, and public health. Am J Public Health 1996, 86:678-683.
• [7]Kaplan GA, Lynch JW: Whither studies on the socioeconomic foundations of population health? Am J Public Health 1997, 87:1409-1411.
• [8]Blakely TA, Woodward AJ: Ecological effects in multi-level studies. J Epidemiol Community Health 2000, 54:367-374.
• [9]Diez-Roux AV: Multilevel analysis in public health research. Annu Rev Public Health 2000, 21:171-192.
• [10]Denley I, Smith SW: Privacy in clinical information systems in secondary care. BMJ 1999, 318:1328-1331.
• [11]Simon GE, Unutzer J, Young BE, Pincus HA: Large medical databases, population-based research, and patient confidentiality. Am J Psychiatry 2000, 157:1731-1737.
• [12]Huie SAB: The concept of neighborhood in health and mortality research. Sociol Spectr 2001, 21:341-358.
• [13]Unwin DJ: GIS, spatial analysis and spatial statistics. Prog Hum Geogr 1996, 20:540-551.
• [14]Openshaw S: The modifiable areal unit problem. Concepts and Techniques in Modern Geography 1984, 38:1-41.
• [15]Iversen GR: Contextual Analysis. Newbury Park: Sage Publications; 1991.
• [16]Boyle MH, Willms JD: Place effects for areas defined by administrative boundaries. Am J Epidemiol 1999, 149:577-585.
• [17]Chaskin RJ: Perspective on neighborhood and community: a review of literature. Soc Serv Rev 1997, 71:527-548.
• [18]Diez-Roux AV, Nieto FJ, Muntaner C, Tyroler HA, Comstock GW, Shahar E, Cooper LS, Watson RL, Szklo M: Neighborhood environments and coronary heart disease: a multilevel analysis. Am J Epidemiol 1997, 146:48-63.
• [19]Diez Roux AV: Investigating neighborhood and area effects on health. Am J Public Health 2001, 91:1783-1789.
• [20]Macintyre S, Ellaway A, Cummins S: Place effects on health: how can we conceptualise, operationalise and measure them? Soc Sci Med 2002, 55:125-139.
• [21]Chaix B, Merlo J, Subramanian SV, Lynch J, Chauvin P: Comparison of a spatial perspective with the multilevel analytical approach in neighborhood studies: the case of mental and behavioral disorders due to psychoactive substance use in Malmo, Sweden, 2001. Am J Epidemiol 2005, 162:171-182.
• [22]Gephart MA: Neighborhoods and communities as contexts for development. In Neighborhood Poverty, Volume I: Context and Consequences for Children. Edited by Brooks-Gunn J, Duncan GJ, Aber JL. New York: Russell Sage; 1997:1-43.
• [23]Kelsall JE, Diggle PJ: Spatial variation in risk of disease: a nonparametric binary regression approach. J R Stat Soc C -Appl Stat 1998, 47:559-573.
• [24]Wood SN: Generalized Additive Models. London: Chapman and Hall; 2006.
• [25]Webster T, Vieira V, Weinberg J, Aschengrau A: Method for mapping population-based case-control studies: an application using generalized additive models. Int J Health Geogr 2006, 5:26. BioMed Central Full Text
• [26]Hastie TJ, Tibshirani RJ: Generalized Additive Models. London: Chapman and Hall; 1990.
• [27]Luntz A, Brailovsky V: On estimation of characters obtained in statistical procedure of recognition(in Russian). Technicheskaya Kibernetica 1969., 3
• [28]Elisseeff A, Pontil M: Leave-one-out error and stability of learning algorithms with applications. In Advances in Learning Theory: Methods, Models and Application-NATO Science Series III: Computer and Systems Sciences. IOS Press; 2003:1-15.
• [29]Ali M, Deen JL, Khatib A, Enwere G, von Seidlein L, Reyburn R, Ali SM, Chang NY, Perroud V, Marodon F, et al.: Paperless registration during survey enumerations and large oral cholera mass vaccination in Zanzibar, the United Republic of Tanzania. Bull World Health Organ 2010, 88:556-559.
• [30]Sur D, Ochiai RL, Bhattacharya SK, Ganguly NK, Ali M, Manna B, Dutta S, Donner A, Kanungo S, Park JK, et al.: A cluster-randomized effectiveness trial of Vi typhoid vaccine in India. N Engl J Med 2009, 361:335-344.
• [31]Talbot TO, Kulldorff M, Forand SP, Haley VB: Evaluation of spatial filters to create smoothed maps of health data. Stat Med 2000, 19:2399-2408.
• [32]Corbett PWM, Jensen JL: Estimating mean permeability: how many measurements do you need? First Break 1992, 10:89-94.
• [33]Ali M, Emch M, von Seidlein L, Yunus M, Sack DA, Rao M, Holmgren J, Clemens JD: Herd immunity conferred by killed oral cholera vaccines in Bangladesh: a reanalysis. Lancet 2005, 366:44-49.
• [34]Giebultowicz S, Ali M, Yunus M, Emch M: A comparison of spatial and social clustering of cholera in Matlab, Bangladesh. Health Place 2011, 17:490-497.
• [35]Cook TD, Shagle SC, Degirmencioglu SM: Capturing social process for testing mediational models of neighborhood effects. In Neighborhood Poverty, Volume II: Policy Implications in Studying Neighborhoods. Edited by Brooks-Gunn J, Duncan GJ, Aber JL. New York: Russell Sage; 1997:94-119.