Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach

Human Resources for Health

Katsuhiko Ogasawara²  Kozo Nakamura¹  Yuki Yokooka³  Hisateru Ohba⁴  Tomoki Ishikawa¹ 

[1] Graduate School of Health Sciences, Hokkaido University, N12W5, Kita-ku, Sapporo 060-0812, Japan;Faculty of Health Sciences, Hokkaido University, N12W5, Kita-ku, Sapporo 060-0812, Japan;Medical Informatics, National Institute of Radiological Sciences, 4-9-1, Anagawa, Inage-ku, Chiba 263-8555, Japan;Department of Medical Management and Informatics, Hokkaido Information University, Nishi Nopporo 59-2 Ebetsu, Hokkaido 069-8585, Japan

关键词: System dynamics;    Maldistribution;    Shortage of physician;    Forecasting the number of physicians;   

Others  :  822387
DOI  :  10.1186/1478-4491-11-41

 received in 2012-11-13, accepted in 2013-08-11,  发布年份 2013

【 摘 要 】

Background

In Japan, a shortage of physicians, who serve a key role in healthcare provision, has been pointed out as a major medical issue. The healthcare workforce policy planner should consider future dynamic changes in physician numbers. The purpose of this study was to propose a physician supply forecasting methodology by applying system dynamics modeling to estimate future absolute and relative numbers of physicians.

Method

We constructed a forecasting model using a system dynamics approach. Forecasting the number of physician was performed for all clinical physician and OB/GYN specialists. Moreover, we conducted evaluation of sufficiency for the number of physicians and sensitivity analysis.

Result & conclusion

As a result, it was forecast that the number of physicians would increase during 2008–2030 and the shortage would resolve at 2026 for all clinical physicians. However, the shortage would not resolve for the period covered. This suggests a need for measures for reconsidering the allocation system of new entry physicians to resolve maldistribution between medical departments, in addition, for increasing the overall number of clinical physicians.

【 授权许可】

   
2013 Ishikawa et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

【 图 表 】

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