Forecasting future needs and optimal allocation of medical residency positions: the Emilia-Romagna Region case study

Human Resources for Health

Roberto Grilli³  Corrado Ruozi³  Andrea Lodi²  Angelina Mazzocchetti¹  Paolo Tubertini²  Francesca Senese³ 

[1] Regional Bureau of Statistics of Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy;Department of Electrical, Electronic, and Information Engineering, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy;Regional Agency for Health and Social Care of Emilia-Romagna, Via Aldo Moro 21, 40127 Bologna, Italy

关键词: System dynamics;    Optimization;    Medical training;    Requirement model;    Health workforce forecast;   

Others  :  1133694
DOI  :  10.1186/1478-4491-13-7

 received in 2014-08-12, accepted in 2015-01-19,  发布年份 2015

【 摘 要 】

Objectives

Italian regional health authorities annually negotiate the number of residency grants to be financed by the National government and the number and mix of supplementary grants to be funded by the regional budget. This study provides regional decision-makers with a requirement model to forecast the future demand of specialists at the regional level.

Methods

We have developed a system dynamics (SD) model that projects the evolution of the supply of medical specialists and three demand scenarios across the planning horizon (2030). Demand scenarios account for different drivers: demography, service utilization rates (ambulatory care and hospital discharges) and hospital beds. Based on the SD outputs (occupational and training gaps), a mixed integer programming (MIP) model computes potentially effective assignments of medical specialization grants for each year of the projection.

Results

To simulate the allocation of grants, we have compared how regional and national grants can be managed in order to reduce future gaps with respect to current training patterns. The allocation of 25 supplementary grants per year does not appear as effective in reducing expected occupational gaps as the re-modulation of all regional training vacancies.

【 授权许可】

   
2015 Senese et al.; licensee BioMed Central.

【 图 表 】

Figure 1.

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