A study of the correlation between dengue and weather in Kandy City, Sri Lanka (2003 -2012) and lessons learned

Infectious Diseases of Poverty

Malani Wickramasinghe²  Sunil Ratnayake²  W M N P Buddhadasa²  Kusalika Ariyaratne¹  N D B Ehelepola² 

[1] Faculty of Engineering, University of Ruhuna, Hapugala, Sri Lanka;The Teaching (General) Hospital – Kandy, Kandy, Sri Lanka

关键词: Disease vectors;    Sri Lanka;    Climate change;    Neglected diseases;    Time series;    Wavelet analyses;    Aedes;    Weather;    Dengue;   

Others  :  1230049
DOI  :  10.1186/s40249-015-0075-8

 received in 2015-05-13, accepted in 2015-09-09,  发布年份 2015

【 摘 要 】

Background

Weather variables affect dengue transmission. This study aimed to identify a dengue weather correlation pattern in Kandy, Sri Lanka, compare the results with results of similar studies, and establish ways for better control and prevention of dengue.

Method

We collected data on reported dengue cases in Kandy and mid-year population data from 2003 to 2012, and calculated weekly incidences. We obtained daily weather data from two weather stations and converted it into weekly data. We studied correlation patterns between dengue incidence and weather variables using the wavelet time series analysis, and then calculated cross-correlation coefficients to find magnitudes of correlations.

Results

We found a positive correlation between dengue incidence and rainfall in millimeters, the number of rainy and wet days, the minimum temperature, and the night and daytime, as well as average, humidity, mostly with a five- to seven-week lag. Additionally, we found correlations between dengue incidence and maximum and average temperatures, hours of sunshine, and wind, with longer lag periods. Dengue incidences showed a negative correlation with wind run.

Conclusion

Our results showed that rainfall, temperature, humidity, hours of sunshine, and wind are correlated with local dengue incidence. We have suggested ways to improve dengue management routines and to control it in these times of global warming. We also noticed that the results of dengue weather correlation studies can vary depending on the data analysis.

【 授权许可】

   
2015 Ehelepola et al.

【 图 表 】

Fig. 1.

Fig. 2.

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