Effect of meteorological variables on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in children: a time-series analysis in Guangzhou, China

BMC Infectious Diseases

Yuantao Hao³  Gexin Xiao²  Cunrui Huang¹  Jing Gu³  Shicheng Yu²  Te Deng³  Yong Huang³ 

[1] School of Public Health & Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, 4059, Australia;Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, China;Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology & Health Information Research Center & Guangdong Key Laboratory of Medicine, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhongshan Road II, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, 510080, China

关键词: China;    Time series analysis;    Meteorological variables;    Hand, foot, and mouth disease;    Generalized additive model;    Children;   

Others  :  1170988
DOI  :  10.1186/1471-2334-13-134

 received in 2012-10-15, accepted in 2013-03-06,  发布年份 2013

【 摘 要 】

Background

Over the last decade, major outbreaks of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) have been reported in Asian countries, resulting in thousands of deaths among children. However, less is known regarding the effect of meteorological variables on the incidence of HFMD in children. This study aims at quantifying the relationship between meteorological variables and the incidence of HFMD among children in Guangzhou, China.

Methods

The association between weekly HFMD cases in children aged <15 years and meteorological variables in Guangzhou from 2008 to 2011 were analyzed using the generalized additive model (GAM) and time-series method, after controlling for long-term trend and seasonality, holiday effects, influenza period and delayed effects.

Results

Temperature and relative humidity with one week lag were significantly associated with HFMD infection among children. We found that a 1°C increase in temperature led to an increase of 1.86% (95% CI: 0.92, 2.81%) in the weekly number of cases in the 0–14 years age group. A one percent increase in relative humidity may lead to an increase of 1.42% (95% CI: 0.97, 1.87%) in the weekly number of cases in the 0–14 years age group.

Conclusions

This study provides quantitative evidence that the incidence of HFMD in children was associated with high average temperature and high relative humidity. The one-week delay in the effects of temperature and relative humidity on HFMD is consistent with the enterovirus incubation period and the potential time lag between onset of children’s sickness and parental awareness and response.

【 授权许可】

   
2013 Huang et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

【 图 表 】

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

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