Spatio-temporal epidemiology of the cholera outbreak in Papua New Guinea, 2009–2011

BMC Infectious Diseases

Andrew R Greenhill³  Peter M Siba²  Masahiro Umezaki⁵  Alexander Rosewell⁶  Sibauk Bieb¹  Berry Ropa¹  Rosheila Dagina¹  Boris I Pavlin⁶  Marinjho H Jonduo²  Ivo Mueller⁴  Stephan Karl⁴  Paul F Horwood² 

[1] Papua New Guinea National Department of Health, Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea;Papua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research, Goroka, Papua New Guinea;School of Applied and Biomedical Sciences, Federation University, Churchill, Victoria, Australia;Walter and Eliza Hall Institute, Melbourne, Australia;Department of Human Ecology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan;World Health Organization, Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea

关键词: Papua New Guinea;    Cluster analysis;    Spatio-temporal distribution;    Vibrio cholerae;    Cholera;   

Others  :  1125818
DOI  :  10.1186/1471-2334-14-449

 received in 2014-04-26, accepted in 2014-08-12,  发布年份 2014

【 摘 要 】

Background

Cholera continues to be a devastating disease in many developing countries where inadequate safe water supply and poor sanitation facilitate spread. From July 2009 until late 2011 Papua New Guinea experienced the first outbreak of cholera recorded in the country, resulting in >15,500 cases and >500 deaths.

Methods

Using the national cholera database, we analysed the spatio-temporal distribution and clustering of the Papua New Guinea cholera outbreak. The Kulldorff space-time permutation scan statistic, contained in the software package SatScan v9.2 was used to describe the first 8 weeks of the outbreak in Morobe Province before cholera cases spread throughout other regions of the country. Data were aggregated at the provincial level to describe the spread of the disease to other affected provinces.

Results

Spatio-temporal and cluster analyses revealed that the outbreak was characterized by three distinct phases punctuated by explosive propagation of cases when the outbreak spread to a new region. The lack of road networks across most of Papua New Guinea is likely to have had a major influence on the slow spread of the disease during this outbreak.

Conclusions

Identification of high risk areas and the likely mode of spread can guide government health authorities to formulate public health strategies to mitigate the spread of the disease through education campaigns, vaccination, increased surveillance in targeted areas and interventions to improve water, sanitation and hygiene.

【 授权许可】

   
2014 Horwood et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

【 图 表 】

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