Updated estimate of the duration of the meningo-encephalitic stage in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis

BMC Research Notes

François Chappuis³  Daniel T Haydon⁴  Daniel Chandramohan²  Sebastian Funk¹  Francesco Checchi² 

[1] Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK;Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK;Division of International and Humanitarian Medicine, Geneva University Hospitals and University of Geneva, rue Gabrielle-Perret-Gentil 4, Geneva, 1211, Switzerland;College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, University Avenue, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK

关键词: Duration of infection;    Diagnostic algorithm;    Screening coverage;    Endemic equilibrium;    Mathematical model;    Trypanosoma brucei gambiense;    Sleeping sickness;   

Others  :  1231582
DOI  :  10.1186/s13104-015-1244-3

 received in 2014-06-30, accepted in 2015-06-17,  发布年份 2015

【 摘 要 】

Background

The duration of the stages of HAT is an important factor in epidemiological studies and intervention planning. Previously, we published estimates of the duration of the haemo-lymphatic stage 1 and meningo-encephalitic stage 2 of the gambiense form of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), in the absence of treatment. Here we revise the estimate of stage 2 duration, computed based on data from Uganda and South Sudan, by adjusting observed infection prevalence for incomplete case detection coverage and diagnostic inaccuracy.

Findings

The revised best estimate for the mean duration of stage 2 is 252 days (95% CI 171–399), about half of our initial best estimate, giving a total mean duration of untreated gambiense HAT infection of approximately 2 years and 2 months.

Conclusions

Our new estimate provides improved information on the transmission dynamics of this neglected tropical disease in Uganda and South Sudan. We stress that there remains considerable variability around the estimated mean values, and that one must be cautious in applying these results to other foci.

【 授权许可】

   
2015 Checchi et al.

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