Modeling rapidly disseminating infectious disease during mass gatherings

BMC Medicine

Cécile Viboud¹  Hiroshi Nishiura²  Gerardo Chowell¹ 

[1] Division of Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, 31 Center Dr, MSC 2220, Bethesda, 20892-2220, Maryland, USA;PRESTO (Precursory Research for Embryonic Science and Technology), Japan Science and Technology Agency, Honcho Kawaguchi 4-1-8, Saitama 332-0012, Japan

关键词: social networks/;    movement;    reactive vaccination;    clustering;    school closure;    mass gathering;    epidemiology;    outbreaks;    epidemic;    mathematical;    Model;   

Others  :  857263
DOI  :  10.1186/1741-7015-10-159

 received in 2012-05-04, accepted in 2012-12-07,  发布年份 2012

【 摘 要 】

We discuss models for rapidly disseminating infectious diseases during mass gatherings (MGs), using influenza as a case study. Recent innovations in modeling and forecasting influenza transmission dynamics at local, regional, and global scales have made influenza a particularly attractive model scenario for MG. We discuss the behavioral, medical, and population factors for modeling MG disease transmission, review existing model formulations, and highlight key data and modeling gaps related to modeling MG disease transmission. We argue that the proposed improvements will help integrate infectious-disease models in MG health contingency plans in the near future, echoing modeling efforts that have helped shape influenza pandemic preparedness plans in recent years.

【 授权许可】

   
2012 Chowell et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

【 图 表 】

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