Bridging the data gaps in the epidemiology of hepatitis C virus infection in Malaysia using multi-parameter evidence synthesis

BMC Infectious Diseases

Adeeba Kamarulzaman²  Herlianna Naning³  Maznah Dahlui¹  Rosmawati Mohamed²  Scott A McDonald⁴ 

[1] Julius Centre, Faculty of Medicine, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia;Faculty of Medicine, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia;Centre of Excellence for Research in AIDS (CERiA), University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia;School of Health & Life Sciences, Glasgow Caledonian University, Cowcaddens Road, Glasgow, Scotland

关键词: Malaysia;    People who inject drugs;    Bayesian evidence synthesis;    Prevalence;    Hepatitis C virus;   

Others  :  1122121
DOI  :  10.1186/s12879-014-0564-6

 received in 2014-07-07, accepted in 2014-10-14,  发布年份 2014

【 摘 要 】

Background

Collecting adequate information on key epidemiological indicators is a prerequisite to informing a public health response to reduce the impact of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Malaysia. Our goal was to overcome the acute data shortage typical of low/middle income countries using statistical modelling to estimate the national HCV prevalence and the distribution over transmission pathways as of the end of 2009.

Methods

Multi-parameter evidence synthesis methods were applied to combine all available relevant data sources - both direct and indirect - that inform the epidemiological parameters of interest.

Results

An estimated 454,000 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 392,000 to 535,000) HCV antibody-positive individuals were living in Malaysia in 2009; this represents 2.5% (95% CrI: 2.2–3.0%) of the population aged 15–64 years. Among males of Malay ethnicity, for 77% (95% CrI: 69–85%) the route of probable transmission was active or a previous history of injecting drugs. The corresponding proportions were smaller for male Chinese and Indian/other ethnic groups (40% and 71%, respectively). The estimated prevalence in females of all ethnicities was 1% (95% CrI: 0.6 to 1.4%); 92% (95% CrI: 88 to 95%) of infections were attributable to non-drug injecting routes of transmission.

Conclusions

The prevalent number of persons living with HCV infection in Malaysia is estimated to be very high. Low/middle income countries often lack a comprehensive evidence base; however, evidence synthesis methods can assist in filling the data gaps required for the development of effective policy to address the future public health and economic burden due to HCV.

【 授权许可】

   
2014 McDonald et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

【 图 表 】

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