Spatio-temporal correlation networks of dengue in the state of Bahia

BMC Public Health

José Garcia V Miranda²  Marcelo A Moret³  Vera C Vale¹  Hugo Saba¹ 

[1] Universidade do Estado da Bahia, Salvador, Bahia, Brasil;Physics Institute - Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, Brasil;Senai/Cimatec, Salvador, Bahia, Brasil

关键词: Bahia;    Randomization;    Transport;    Correlation;    Dengue;   

Others  :  1126116
DOI  :  10.1186/1471-2458-14-1085

 received in 2014-08-06, accepted in 2014-10-10,  发布年份 2014

【 摘 要 】

Background

Dengue is a public health problem that presents complexity in its dissemination. The physical means of spreading and the dynamics of the spread between municipalities need to be analyzed to guide effective public policies to combat this problem.

Methods

This study uses timing varying graph methods (TVG) to construct a correlation network between occurrences of reported cases of dengue between cities in the state of Bahia-Brazil. The topological network indices of all cities were correlated with dengue incidence using Spearman correlation. A randomization test was used to estimate the significance value of the correlation.

Results

The correlation network presented a complex behavior with a heavy-tail distribution of the network edges weight. The randomization test exhibit a significant correlation (P < 0.0001) between the degree of each municipality in the network and the incidence of dengue in each municipality.

Conclusions

The hypothesis of the existence of a correlation between the occurrences of reported cases of dengue between different municipalities in the state of Bahia was validated. The significant correlation between the node degree and incidence, indicates that municipalities with high incidence are also responsible for the spread of the disease in the state. The method proposed suggests a new tool in epidemiological control strategy.

【 授权许可】

   
2014 Saba et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

【 图 表 】

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