A study of spatiotemporal delay in hand, foot and mouth disease in response to weather variations based on SVD: a case study in Shandong Province, China

BMC Public Health

Bing Xu³  Jinfeng Wang²  Renbin Ouyang¹  Yilan Liao² 

[1] Central South University, Changsha 410083, China;The Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-Warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China;Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China

关键词: Weather variation;    Hand, foot and mouth disease;    Spatiotemporal delay;   

Others  :  1122798
DOI  :  10.1186/s12889-015-1446-6

 received in 2013-10-22, accepted in 2015-01-20,  发布年份 2015

【 摘 要 】

Background

A large number of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks was reported during 2008 in China. However, little is known about the effects of meteorological conditions on different temporal and spatial scales on HFMD incidence in children. The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between meteorological data on various temporal and spatial scales and HFMD incidence among children in Shandong Province, China.

Methods

The association between weekly HFMD cases and meteorological data on different temporal and spatial scales in Shandong Province from May 2008 to July 2008 and September 2008 to October 2008 was analyzed, using buffer analysis and the singular value decomposition method.

Results

Wind speed within a 50-km buffer circle of counties in Shandong Province with two-week lag and RH within a 10-km buffer circle of counties with eight-week lag were significantly associated with HFMD incidence. We found a positive correlation between wind speed within the 50-km buffer circle in the prior two weeks and wind speed within the province in the prior one week.

Conclusions

This study revealed strong associations between HFMD incidence in children and wind speed and RH. Thus, meteorological anomalies in the prior two or eight weeks could be used as a valid tool for detecting anomalies during the peak periods of infectious disease.

【 授权许可】

   
2015 Liao et al.; licensee BioMed Central.

【 图 表 】

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